Scotland Set to Miss Child Poverty Targets by Wide Margin, Charity Warns

Scotland is likely to fall significantly short of its legally binding goals for reducing child poverty, according to a new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), one of the UK's most prominent social reform charities. The foundation's latest Poverty in Scotland study concludes that current government plans lack the ambition and funding necessary to deliver the scale of change required, and it calls for a fundamental rethink of how poverty reduction is approached.

At the centre of the charity's concerns is the stubbornly high rate of relative poverty among Scottish children. Over the period from 2022 to 2025, an average of 21% of children in Scotland were living in relative poverty. That figure is well above the 10% threshold that MSPs committed to achieving by 2030 when they passed landmark legislation in 2017. While Scotland's rate remains lower than the UK-wide average of 28%, the JRF argues that this relative advantage should not mask the severity of the challenge.

The 2017 law placed a statutory duty on Scottish ministers to meet four distinct poverty reduction targets. It was widely regarded at the time as a bold statement of intent, signalling that tackling child poverty would be a defining mission of the devolved government. Yet the JRF's analysis suggests that, without a dramatic change of course, the headline goal of pushing relative poverty below one in ten children will be missed by a wide margin.

Relative poverty is defined as living in a household whose disposable income, after housing costs are deducted, falls below 60% of the UK median. The measure is adjusted to account for family size and composition, making it a more nuanced indicator than raw income figures alone. By this standard, the report estimates that approximately 940,000 people across Scotland were living in relative poverty, equivalent to 17% of the population.

The charity's findings paint a picture of a problem that is both widespread and deeply entrenched. According to the report, relative poverty rates are highest among children from ethnic minority families, where the figure climbs to 47%. In addition, 11% of Scotland's overall population is classified as being in deep poverty, with 7% living in very deep poverty. These categories reflect households falling far below the poverty line, often struggling to afford basic necessities.

The JRF acknowledges that the reasons behind Scotland's failure to make faster progress are complex and overlapping. It points to UK government austerity measures, the ongoing cost of living crisis, and what it describes as a dysfunctional relationship between local and national government in Scotland. Each of these factors, the charity suggests, has combined to blunt the impact of policies designed to lift families out of poverty.

A further complication has arisen around how progress is measured. Some interim targets were missed, and adjustments to data collection have made it harder to assess whether the government is on track. The poverty targets rely on annual figures, which can fluctuate considerably from year to year. Both the JRF and the Scottish government agree that three-year averages provide a more stable and meaningful picture of underlying trends. It is on this basis that the 21% average for 2022 to 2025 has been calculated.

Scotland's Social Justice and Housing Secretary, Shirley-Anne Somerville, is currently overseeing a review of the poverty reduction goals. The JRF has urged her not to dilute or weaken the targets in response to missed milestones. Instead, it recommends setting stretching, statutory, income-based poverty-reduction targets backed by strong accountability measures. The charity argues that only targets with real legal force and clear consequences will drive the systemic change required.

The report also sets out a series of policy recommendations aimed at tackling the root causes of poverty. It calls for the creation of flexible, well-paid jobs, particularly in parts of Scotland where residents cannot easily find work close to home. It advocates expanding access to high-quality, affordable childcare, with enough flexibility to allow parents in low-income households to take up employment. It stresses the importance of adequate social security payments, especially for people with disabilities who may need to fund their own care. And it highlights the need to maintain and improve social and affordable housing, which has helped Scotland keep its poverty rate below the UK average.

The Scottish government has pushed back against the suggestion that it is not doing enough. In a statement issued ahead of the report's publication, Somerville pointed to the Scottish child payment, describing it as providing unparalleled financial support to the families of more than 320,000 children. She also said the government would go further by expanding breakfast clubs for children and investing more than £40m in improving access to transport and skills for parents. Overall, she noted, the government is committing around £3.5bn in 2026-27 to policies that tackle poverty and the cost of living. Ministers also say their policies have kept 100,000 children out of poverty this year, while conceding that more work remains.

For First Minister John Swinney, the issue carries personal political weight. In his first interview after being sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh in 2024, he declared that his overriding priority would be to work to eradicate child poverty in Scotland. During this year's Holyrood election campaign, the SNP leader repeated his determination to achieve that goal. The JRF, however, warns of an increasing disconnect between such rhetoric and the reality of daily life for families living in poverty across Scotland.

The charity's report ultimately amounts to a call for radical change rather than incremental adjustment. It argues that rewiring local government, public services and the tax system will be necessary to put the Scottish government's pledges back on track. Without a much bolder and properly funded plan, the JRF concludes, Scotland will continue to drift away from the ambitions enshrined in its own legislation, leaving hundreds of thousands of children facing the consequences of poverty well into the next decade.